A Neutral Analysis of the Israel-Palestine Conflict: Delving into History - Saiful Baten Tito

A Neutral Analysis of the Israel-Palestine Conflict: Delving into History

Summary: A Protracted and Complex Conflict

The Israel-Palestine conflict is one of the most intricate geopolitical crises of the modern world, its roots deeply embedded in centuries of historical, religious, and nationalistic claims.¹ This conflict is not merely a territorial dispute between two peoples, but rather a complex web of international law, humanitarian principles, and global power interests. Since the rise of Zionism and Arab nationalism in the late 19th century, competing national aspirations in the region have intensified. The British Mandate's promise to establish a "national home" for Jews in Palestine, alongside the recognition of Arab self-determination rights, further complicated the situation, laying a fundamental groundwork for the conflict.²

The 1948 war and its aftermath, the Palestinian "Nakba" or catastrophe, which displaced millions, deepened the humanitarian dimension of the conflict.¹ Since then, a series of Arab-Israeli wars, Israel's occupation, and Palestinian resistance movements have led to extensive loss of life and destruction on both sides. Peace processes, such as the Camp David and Oslo Accords, repeatedly offered hope but ultimately failed, highlighting the inability to resolve the core causes of the conflict.⁶

This report provides a neutral analysis of the roles played by Hamas, Israeli leadership, and world leaders. It presents evidence and examples of Hamas's terrorist activities, the controversial policies of Israeli prime ministers and state officials, and the self-serving actions of world leaders on the international stage. Detailed accounts of the human cost of the conflict, including casualty figures and damages on both sides, are provided. Additionally, the report includes an analysis of geopolitical interests and how various actors benefit from this conflict, revealing its multifaceted nature.

1. Introduction: Contending Lands, Contending Narratives

Historical Background and the Quest for Neutrality

The roots of the Israel-Palestine conflict lie in the parallel rise of Zionism and Arab nationalism in the late 19th century.² Both movements claim historical and national rights over the territory of Palestine, creating competing narratives for the region. The Jewish people, throughout their long history, have endured periods of severe persecution, including the Holocaust, which profoundly shaped their desire for a secure homeland. First World War, after the fall of the Ottoman Empire, Palestine came under British Mandate from 1920 to 1948.³ This Mandate included British support for establishing a "national home" for Jews through the "Balfour Declaration," while also promising self-determination rights to Arabs.² This inherent contradiction sowed the seeds of conflict and generated tension between rival national claims.²

Analyzing this historically rooted conflict neutrally is a significant challenge. Every event, every action in this conflict is deeply emotional, and different parties interpret them from their own perspectives. However, this report strives to maintain strict neutrality. This means not only presenting the claims of both sides but also meticulously verifying every piece of information and event, relying on data from credible sources, and avoiding emotional or biased language. For instance, when using terms like "occupation" or "terrorism," their international legal or recognized definitions have been followed to avoid accusations of bias towards any party. The foundational document of this conflict, the British Mandate, itself contained contradictory objectives.² It did not merely manage an existing conflict but institutionalized the core dilemma by legitimizing two different national aspirations within the same territory. This inherent contradiction subsequently became a fundamental cause of the conflict.

2. Origins of the Dispute: From Mandate to Catastrophe (Pre-1948)

Ottoman Legacy and the British Mandate: Seeds of Division

Palestine was under Ottoman rule for centuries, where a multi-ethnic and multi-cultural society existed.⁵ In the 1930s, Jewish immigration to Palestine increased due to persecution in Europe and the Zionist movement's goal of establishing a Jewish state.⁵ This immigration led to deep frustration among Arabs regarding land acquisition, Jewish immigration, and economic disparities.² This frustration culminated in the Arab Revolt of 1936-1939 against British rule and Jewish immigration, which manifested as intense Arab resistance through strikes, demonstrations, and civil disobedience.² The British authorities severely suppressed this revolt, leaving Palestinians without a unified leadership.⁴

During this period, the Jewish community formed military organizations for self-defense. Notable among them was the "Haganah," initially formed to protect Jewish communities from local Arab attacks, which later became the foundation of the Israel Defense Forces.² This escalating violence and militarization on both sides created a vicious cycle. Jewish immigration and land acquisition, driven by Zionist goals, gave rise to Arab resistance, which in turn led to the creation of Jewish self-defense organizations. This process fostered an environment of mutual distrust and fear, preparing both sides for armed conflict even before the declaration of statehood. This demonstrates that the conflict was not just a possibility, but became inevitable as both sides prepared for armed struggle.

UN Partition Plan and the Outbreak of Conflict

On November 29, 1947, the United Nations General Assembly passed Resolution 181, proposing the partition of Palestine into a Jewish state and an Arab state, with Jerusalem under international administration.³ However, the Arab world rejected this plan, considering it unjust and a violation of the UN Charter's principle of self-determination.⁵ This rejection immediately led to an escalation of civil conflict and violence between Jewish and Arab communities.⁸

The UN partition plan, although intended to resolve the conflict ³, in reality acted as a catalyst for a full-scale war. By failing to gain the consent of a major party, it legitimized the aspirations of one side while alienating the other, which transformed the conflict from a civil stage to an interstate war. The UN's attempt to impose a solution without sufficient support, rather than de-escalating the conflict, further accelerated it.

3. The Ongoing Tragedy: War, Occupation, and Uprisings (1948-Present)

1948 War and the Nakba: Displacement and Loss of Property

On May 14, 1948, with the end of the British Mandate, Israel declared its independence, which immediately triggered the First Arab-Israeli War.⁸ Egypt (supported by Saudi Arabian, Sudanese, and Yemeni troops), Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria invaded Israel.⁸ This war resulted in an Israeli victory, but more than half of the Palestinian population was permanently displaced, an event known as the "Nakba" or "catastrophe".¹ Approximately 750,000 Palestinians were expelled from their homes or fled.¹ After this war, Israel gained control of West Jerusalem, Egypt gained the Gaza Strip, and Jordan gained the West Bank and East Jerusalem.⁸ In December 1948, the UN General Assembly passed Resolution 194, calling for the return of Palestinian refugees.⁸

The Nakba is not merely a historical event, but rather an ongoing trauma and continuous process for Palestinians. Palestinians today continue to face displacement and loss of property due to Israeli settlements, evictions, land confiscation, and home demolitions.⁵ This transforms the Nakba from a single event into a continuous state of injustice, a deeply painful part of the Palestinian collective memory and a fundamental element of their identity.

Cycle of Arab-Israeli Wars: Territorial Changes and Human Cost

·         1956 Suez Crisis: Israel invaded Egypt's Sinai Peninsula and occupied most of it, but later withdrew under international pressure.⁹

·         1967 Six-Day War: Israel fought a decisive war against several Arab neighbors, gaining control of the West Bank, Gaza Strip, all of East Jerusalem, Syria's Golan Heights, and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula.⁴ This marked the beginning of Israel's occupation of these territories.⁴ This war transformed the nature of the conflict from interstate warfare to prolonged occupation, with significant implications for international law and human rights. UN Security Council Resolution 242 called for Israeli withdrawal from occupied territories, giving rise to the concept of "land for peace".⁸

·         1973 Yom Kippur War: Egypt and Syria attempted to retake the occupied territories, catching Israel by surprise. After a UN-sponsored ceasefire, UN Security Council Resolution 338 was passed, calling for the implementation of Resolution 242.⁸

·         1982 Lebanon War: Israel invaded Lebanon with the stated goal of eliminating the PLO (Palestine Liberation Organization).³

Intifadas: Resistance and Suppression

·         First Intifada (1987-1993): A mass uprising by Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza against Israeli occupation, triggered by a car accident. Approximately 200 Israelis and 1,300 Palestinians were killed.⁸ Hamas was established during this period.⁸

·         Second Intifada (2000-2005): Triggered by Israeli politician Ariel Sharon's visit to the Al-Aqsa Mosque, this uprising was significantly more violent than the first. It resulted in 4,000 Palestinian and 1,000 Israeli deaths.⁸ Israel responded by beginning construction of a security barrier in the West Bank.⁸ While the First Intifada was primarily civilian resistance ¹⁴, the Second Intifada evolved into more militarized and extremist violence, reflecting the failure of peace talks and the rise of groups like Hamas.¹²

Israel's Disengagement from Gaza and its Consequences

In August 2005, Israel unilaterally withdrew settlers and military forces from the Gaza Strip.⁴ Despite this withdrawal, the international community continues to consider Gaza under Israeli military occupation, because Israel maintains control over its borders, airspace, and coastline.⁴ Following the disengagement, Hamas won the Palestinian elections in 2006 and took control of the Gaza Strip in 2007 after clashes with Fatah.⁴ This led to the political division of Palestinian territories.⁴

4. The Elusive Path to Peace: Agreements, Failures, and Unfulfilled Hopes

Historic Agreements: The Promise of Camp David and Oslo

·         Camp David Accords (1978): Mediated by the United States (Jimmy Carter), this agreement was signed between Israel (Menachem Begin) and Egypt (Anwar Al-Sadat). It led to the first peace treaty between Israel and an Arab country, with Israel withdrawing from the Sinai Peninsula.⁶ It also laid the groundwork for negotiations concerning the West Bank and Gaza Strip.⁶

·         Oslo Accords (1993, 1995): Resulting from secret negotiations between Israel (Yitzhak Rabin) and the PLO (Yasser Arafat), these accords led to mutual recognition and established interim self-governance for the Palestinian Authority (PA) in parts of the West Bank and Gaza.¹ The goal of these agreements was to achieve a final peace agreement by 1999.⁷

Criticism of the Peace Process: Unresolved Issues and Entrenched Realities

·         Camp David (1978): While a milestone in establishing Israel-Egypt peace, it isolated Egypt in the Arab world and failed to resolve the broader regional conflict, including the Palestinian issue.⁶ Anwar Al-Sadat was assassinated for his role.⁶

·         Oslo Accords (1993-1999): These agreements are criticized for creating a new system of Israeli control rather than establishing peace.⁷

o    Israel used the negotiations to solidify its control and expand illegal settlements (the number of settlers nearly doubled between 1992 and 2000).⁷

o    Restrictions on Palestinian movement became increasingly severe.⁷

o    US mediation was perceived as biased towards Israel.⁷

o    This led to internal Palestinian divisions, where the PA's paramilitary police worked with the Israeli army to suppress dissent.⁷

o    The West Bank was divided into Area A, B, and C, with Israel retaining full military and civilian control over 60% (Area C).⁴

o    Economic arrangements devastated the Palestinian economy.⁷

o    Extremists on both sides hindered peace efforts.⁷

·         2000 Camp David Summit: This summit failed due to irreconcilable differences over the status of Jerusalem and sovereignty over the Temple Mount.⁸ Arafat is often blamed in Israeli and American narratives for its failure, though others argue Israel's offer was insufficient and Palestinians were not ready for a final agreement.¹⁸ This failure is considered a major trigger for the Second Intifada.¹⁸

Criticism of these peace processes suggests that attempts to achieve "peace" by focusing only on interstate relations or interim arrangements, without addressing core issues, can be fragile and even exacerbate underlying tensions. "Interim" arrangements like the Oslo Accords tended to become permanent controls, entrenching occupation and increasing Palestinian suffering. This indicates a major failure of international oversight and mediation mechanisms.

Additionally, the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin ²⁰ and the rise of Benjamin Netanyahu ²⁰ illustrate how internal political and ideological opponents within Israel can derail the peace process. Similarly, Hamas's rejection of Oslo ¹³ and its subsequent actions ¹⁴ highlight internal Palestinian divisions and the ability of "hardliners on both sides" to "derail" the peace process.²⁰ This indicates that peace negotiations are not solely dependent on international diplomacy, but are deeply influenced by internal political pressures, extremist ideologies, and leaders' willingness to take risks for peace.

5. Accountability and Authority: A Critical Examination of Key Actors

5.1. Hamas: Ideology, Operations, and Destructive Impact

·         Origins, Charter, and Evolution as a Militant Force:

o    Hamas (Islamic Resistance Movement) is a Palestinian Sunni Islamist military and sociopolitical movement, designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, EU, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Paraguay, and Israel.¹²

o    It was founded in 1987 during the First Intifada by Sheikh Ahmed Yassin as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood.⁸

o    Its 1988 charter pledged to destroy Israel and establish an Islamic state in all of historical Palestine (comprising present-day Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza), and included antisemitic rhetoric.¹² Although a 2017 amendment removed the call for Israel's destruction, it still does not recognize Israel as a state.²²

o    Hamas established a social welfare network, which appears to have aided its popularity among Palestinians and served as a conduit for funding its military operations.¹²

o    Hamas expanded its power in Gaza after winning the 2006 Palestinian elections over Fatah and forcibly taking control of the Gaza Strip in 2007 after clashes.⁴ This led to the political division of Palestinian territories.⁴

·         Strategies, Military Structure, and Major Attacks on Israel:

o    Hamas's military wing is the Al-Qassam Brigades, the largest and best-equipped militant organization in the Gaza Strip.²⁸ It operates independently but is subordinate to Hamas's broader political goals.²⁸

o    Hamas's tactics include rocket and mortar attacks, mass shootings, suicide bombings, drones, anti-tank guided missiles, and an extensive tunnel system.¹²

o    Major Attacks:

§  2008-2009 Gaza War: Israel attacked Gaza after approximately 800 rocket attacks. Hundreds of civilians and combatants were killed.⁸

§  2014 Operation Protective Edge: Israel attacked Gaza after mutual attacks. Approximately 2,000 Gazans, 66 Israeli soldiers, and 5 Israeli civilians were killed.⁸

§  2021 Israel-Hamas Crisis: Conflict erupted following evictions in East Jerusalem and clashes at Al-Aqsa Mosque. Over 200 people in Gaza and at least 10 in Israel were killed.⁸ Hamas and PIJ launched over 4,000 rockets.²³

§  October 7, 2023 Attack ("Operation Al-Aqsa Flood"): An unprecedented surprise attack on Israel, killing approximately 1,200 people (mostly civilians) and taking 200-251 hostages.⁸ This attack included rocket barrages, infiltration by 1,500 militants (Hamas and PIJ), and assaults on kibbutzim and a music festival.³² The UN reported evidence of sexual violence.²³ Hamas justified the attack by citing the blockade and occupation.²³

·         Internal Palestinian Dynamics: Governance and Factionalism:

o    Hamas's victory in the 2006 elections led to international sanctions because Hamas refused to recognize Israel.¹⁶

o    The Fatah-Hamas conflict (June 2007) resulted in Hamas taking full control of Gaza, which politically divided Palestinian territories.¹⁶ This split the Palestinian Authority (PA) into two entities: the Fatah-ruled Palestinian National Authority (West Bank) and the Hamas government (Gaza).¹⁶

o    This division rendered the Palestinian parliament dysfunctional and led to the PA facing financial distress.¹⁶ The US, Israel, and Arab countries supported strengthening Fatah and weakening Hamas.¹⁶

Table: Major Hamas Attacks on Israel (Pre and Post-October 7, 2023) and Casualties

Date of Attack	Target/Event	Israeli Casualties (Approx.)	Palestinian Casualties (Approx.)	Other Information
2008-2009	Gaza War	~13 (soldiers & civilians)	~1,100-1,400 (civilians & combatants)	Israeli offensive after 800 rocket attacks.8
2014	Operation Protective Edge	66 soldiers, 5 civilians	~2,000 Gazans	Israeli offensive after mutual attacks.8
2021	Israel-Hamas Crisis	~10 (civilians & soldiers)	~200 (Gaza)	Followed evictions in East Jerusalem & Al-Aqsa clashes.8 Hamas & PIJ launched 4,000+ rockets.23
October 7, 2023	Operation Al-Aqsa Flood	~1,200 (mostly civilians), 251 hostages	-	Unprecedented surprise attack, rocket barrages, infiltration, sexual violence.8
October 7, 2023-Present	Gaza War	~1,700 (including Oct 7 attack) 32	~55,000+ (Gaza Health Ministry) 30	Rocket, missile, and drone attacks by Hamas & PIJ on Israel (28,000+).34 Widespread destruction & humanitarian crisis in Gaza.30

Major Attacks by Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP):

In addition to Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) have carried out significant attacks against Israel. PIJ, founded in 1979 as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, aims to destroy Israel and establish an Islamist Palestinian state.³⁵ It receives support from Iran and Hezbollah and is the second-largest militant group in Gaza and the West Bank after Hamas.²³ PIJ's military wing, Al-Quds Brigades, has been responsible for numerous attacks on Israeli targets since the 1990s.³⁵ Its tactics include small-arms attacks, mortar and rocket attacks, and, until the mid-2000s, suicide bombings.³⁵

Notable PIJ attacks include:

·         August 1987: Claimed responsibility for the killing of the commander of Israeli military police in the Gaza Strip.³⁶

·         July 1989: An attack on Egged bus 405 on the Jerusalem–Tel Aviv highway, killing 14 people and wounding dozens.³⁶

·         February 1992: In the "Night of the Pitchforks," PIJ members killed three Israeli soldiers in their base using knives, axes, and a pitchfork.³⁶

·         October 7, 2023: Participated in the Hamas-led attacks on Israel, which killed approximately 1,200 people and took over 240 hostages.³²

The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), a secular Palestinian Marxist-Leninist organization founded in 1967 by George Habash ³⁷, does not recognize Israel and advocates for the complete "liberation" of "historical Palestine," often through terror.³⁷ It was notorious for aircraft hijackings in the 1960s and 1970s and has been involved in suicide bombings, shootings, and assassinations targeting civilians.³⁷

Notable PFLP attacks include:

·         July 23, 1968: Hijacking of El Al Flight 426, where 21 passengers and 11 crew were held for 39 days.³⁸

·         February 21, 1969: Bombing of a Jerusalem SuperSol supermarket, killing 2 people and wounding 9.³⁸

·         May 30, 1972: The Lod Airport massacre at Ben Gurion International Airport, where 28 passengers were gunned down in collaboration with the Japanese Red Army.³⁸

·         October 21, 2001: Assassination of Israeli Minister for Tourism Rehavam Zeevi.³⁷

·         November 2014: The Jerusalem synagogue massacre, where four Jewish worshippers and an Israeli Druze police officer were killed.³⁷

5.2. Israeli Leadership: Policy, Controversy, and International Scrutiny

·         Analysis of Prime Ministers' Decisions: From State Formation to Occupation:

o    David Ben-Gurion (1948-1963): Israel's first Prime Minister, a prominent leader of the Zionist movement.³⁹ He led the unification of Jewish militias into the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Israel's victory against the Arab League in the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, which resulted in the expulsion and flight of most of the Palestinian Arab population.³⁹ He oversaw mass immigration and the assimilation of Jewish immigrants.³⁹ His controversial policies included supporting Israel's reprisal operations against Arab guerrilla attacks and its invasion of Egypt during the 1956 Suez Crisis.³⁹ Some historians argue that Ben-Gurion supported the idea of expelling Palestinian Arabs, though no written order existed.⁴⁰

o    Golda Meir (1969-1974): Israel's fourth Prime Minister, known as the "Iron Lady".⁴¹ She is widely criticized for Israel being caught unprepared in the 1973 Yom Kippur War.⁴² Despite authorizing full military mobilization hours before the war, she rejected a preemptive strike to avoid being perceived as the aggressor and jeopardizing US aid.⁴² One of her most controversial statements was in 1969, when she asserted that "there was no such thing as Palestinians".⁴²

o    Menachem Begin (1977-1983): Israel's sixth Prime Minister, who received the Nobel Peace Prize jointly with Anwar Al-Sadat for the 1978 Camp David Accords.⁴³ He believed in the concept of "Greater Israel," encompassing all of Palestine.⁴⁴ During his tenure, settlement expansion in the West Bank and Gaza Strip accelerated, complicating the prospects for a peaceful resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.⁴³ He ordered the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, aimed at disabling the PLO.⁴⁴

o    Yitzhak Rabin (1974-1977, 1992-1995): Israel's fifth and eleventh Prime Minister. He played a crucial role in the Oslo Accords, for which he shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Yasser Arafat and Shimon Peres.²⁰ These accords called for handing over parts of the West Bank and Gaza to Palestinians.²⁰ This "land handover" idea was deeply offensive to many religious Jews who considered the West Bank their birthright.²⁰ His assassination in 1995 by a Jewish extremist created deep divisions in Israeli society and derailed the peace process.²⁰

o    Ariel Sharon (2001-2006): Israel's eleventh Prime Minister. His controversial policies included initiating the construction of the security barrier in the West Bank in 2002 ⁸ and the unilateral disengagement plan from the Gaza Strip in 2005.⁸ This disengagement aimed to address Israel's long-term security challenges by focusing resources on areas that would remain an "inseparable part of the State of Israel in any future agreement" with Palestinians and to address the "demographic time bomb" of Palestinian population growth.¹⁵ Critics argue that this disengagement sought to freeze the peace process and indefinitely delay the establishment of a Palestinian state.¹⁵

o    Ehud Barak (1999-2001): Israel's tenth Prime Minister. His role in the 2000 Camp David Summit was controversial, as it failed due to irreconcilable differences over the status of Jerusalem.⁸ Arafat is often blamed in Israeli and American narratives for the failure, though Palestinians felt Israel's offer was insufficient and they were not ready for a final agreement.¹⁸ This failure is considered a major trigger for the Second Intifada.¹⁸

o    Ehud Olmert (2006-2009): Israel's twelfth Prime Minister. His tenure saw the 2006 Lebanon War and the 2008-2009 Gaza War (Operation Cast Lead).⁴⁵ He has been a harsh critic of Israel's ongoing military operations in Gaza, stating that Israel is acting "very close to a war crime".⁴⁶ His peace proposals included ceding almost 94% of the West Bank for a Palestinian state, dividing Jerusalem into Jewish and Arab parts, and rejecting the "right of return" for Palestinian refugees.⁴⁸

Table: Israeli Prime Ministers and Controversial Policy/Decisions

Prime Minister	Term	Controversial Policy/Decision	Impact/Criticism
David Ben-Gurion	1948-1963	Expulsion of Palestinians in 1948 war 40; retaliatory military operations.39	Mass displacement of Palestinian population; militarization of conflict.40
Golda Meir	1969-1974	Unpreparedness in 1973 Yom Kippur War 42; "no such thing as Palestinians" comment.42	Heavy Israeli casualties; denial of Palestinian identity.42
Menachem Begin	1977-1983	West Bank settlement expansion 43; 1982 Lebanon War.44	Complicated peace process; widespread destruction and humanitarian crisis in Lebanon.43
Yitzhak Rabin	1992-1995	Oslo Accords 20; West Bank & Gaza handover.20	Opposition and assassination by Jewish extremists 20; fragility of peace process.20
Ariel Sharon	2001-2006	West Bank security barrier construction 8; unilateral disengagement from Gaza.8	Restricted Palestinian movement; accused of freezing peace process.15
Ehud Barak	1999-2001	2000 Camp David Summit failure 19; inflexible stance on Jerusalem & Temple Mount.19	Triggered Second Intifada 18; collapse of peace process.19
Ehud Olmert	2006-2009	2008-2009 Gaza War 45; accusations of Israeli war crimes.46	Widespread destruction and humanitarian crisis in Gaza; international criticism.46

·         Settlement Expansion: Policy, Impact, and International Legal Challenges:

o    Settlement construction in occupied territories began immediately after the 1967 Six-Day War.⁴⁹ Israeli settlement policy was progressively encouraged by Levi Eshkol's Labor government and later intensified by Menachem Begin's Likud government.⁴⁹

o    These settlements are illegal under international law.⁵¹ Numerous UN Security Council resolutions (e.g., 446, 478, 2334) and rulings by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) (2004, 2024) have declared settlements a "flagrant violation" of international law.⁵¹

o    Article 49 of the Fourth Geneva Convention prohibits an occupying power from transferring its own civilian population into occupied territory, a provision widely considered violated by Israel.⁵¹

o    Settlements fragment Palestinian territory, hinder the possibility of a viable Palestinian state, and violate Palestinian human rights, including freedom of movement, livelihood, and property rights.⁵¹

o    Settler violence and impunity for such acts are a serious concern, often occurring with military support and protection.⁵³

·         Military Operations and Human Rights Concerns:

o    Israeli military operations, especially in the Gaza Strip, have caused extensive civilian casualties and infrastructure destruction.³⁰

o    Human rights organizations like the UN, Amnesty International, and Human Rights Watch have accused Israel of war crimes, collective punishment, and even genocide.³⁴

o    Since October 2023, Israeli military operations in Gaza have killed over 55,000 Palestinians, more than half of whom are women and children.³⁰ Approximately 1.9 million people have been internally displaced.⁵⁴

o    Over 87% of schools and all universities in Gaza have been damaged or destroyed.³⁴ Nearly 84% of health facilities have been damaged or destroyed, leading to a collapse of the healthcare system.³⁴

o    Israel's blockade of food, water, and fuel has created a severe humanitarian crisis and risk of famine in Gaza.³⁰

6. Historical Persecution of the Jewish People

The Jewish people have endured a long and often tragic history of persecution, which has profoundly shaped their identity and their yearning for a secure homeland. Understanding this historical context is crucial for a comprehensive analysis of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

6.1. Early Islamic History: The Fate of Jewish Tribes

·         Context in Medina: Before the advent of Islam, Medina (Yathrib) was a multi-ethnic society that included prominent Jewish tribes such as Banu Nadir, Banu Qaynuqa, and Banu Qurayza. These tribes were known for their skills as jewelers and weapon makers.⁶⁹ When Prophet Muhammad arrived in Medina in 622 CE, he initially expected a welcoming reception from the Jewish tribes. However, relations quickly became uneasy, largely due to local political dynamics and the Jewish clans' involvement in a civil war between the Arab tribes of Khazraj and Aws Allah.⁶⁹

·         Growing Tensions and Expulsions: Over a period of five years, Jewish leaders reportedly acted against Muhammad multiple times, with some sources indicating plots to kill him at least twice and an attempt to poison him.⁶⁹ Consequently, two of these tribes, Banu Nadir and Banu Qaynuqa, were eventually exiled from Medina for failing to uphold their agreements and for posing a perceived threat to the nascent Muslim community.⁶⁹

·         The Banu Qurayza Incident (627 CE):

o    Alleged Treason: During the Battle of the Trench in 627 CE, when Meccan forces besieged Medina, the Banu Qurayza, despite an earlier pact, allegedly entered into negotiations with the besieging army. This act was seen as a grave betrayal, threatening to expose the Muslim community to a devastating two-front attack.⁶⁹

o    Siege and Arbitration: Following the withdrawal of the Meccan forces, Muhammad's army besieged the Banu Qurayza's fortress for 25 days.⁶⁹ The tribe ultimately surrendered unconditionally, agreeing to have their fate decided by Sa'd ibn Mu'adh, a former ally of the Banu Qurayza who had converted to Islam.⁶⁹

o    Judgment and Execution: Sa'd, who was severely wounded in battle, ruled that all the men of Banu Qurayza should be executed, and the women and children sold into slavery.⁶⁹ Muhammad accepted this judgment. According to Muslim sources, between 400 and 900 men were executed and buried in trenches dug in Medina's market.⁶⁹

o    Historical Interpretation: Scholars note that this judgment was consistent with the prevailing norms of warfare in 7th-century Arabia, where tribal betrayals could lead to severe consequences.⁶⁹ However, some modern historians question the historicity of the initial pact and suggest that economic motives, such as the acquisition of booty and land, may have played a role in the extermination.⁷⁰

·         Broader Context of Jewish Life under Muslim Rule: Jewish communities under Muslim rule experienced varied treatment throughout history. While often granted the status of dhimmi (protected non-Muslims with certain rights and restrictions), there were also periods of severe persecution. For example, the Almohad Caliphate (12th-13th centuries) in North Africa and Spain destroyed synagogues, outlawed Jewish practices, and imposed forced conversions to Islam.⁷³ In Persia (17th-19th centuries), Jews faced expulsions, forced conversions (e.g., the Meshed Incident of 1839), and discriminatory laws.⁷⁴ Zaydi Yemen also imposed severe discriminatory laws, leading to forced exile.⁷⁴ While some historians emphasize periods of relative tolerance, others highlight recurrent episodes of forced conversion, massacres, and humiliating regulations, arguing that Jewish communities remained in a state of perpetual dependency and vulnerability.⁷⁴

6.2. The Holocaust: A Catastrophe of Unprecedented Scale

·         Definition and Scope: The Holocaust was the systematic, state-sponsored persecution and mass murder of six million European Jews by the Nazi German regime and its allies and collaborators between 1933 and 1945.⁷⁵ It is also known as "the Shoah," a Hebrew word meaning "catastrophe."⁷⁶ This genocide targeted nearly two out of every three European Jews, who numbered 9 million in 1933.⁷⁶

·         Methods of Persecution:

o    Legal Discrimination: Beginning with Adolf Hitler's rise to power in 1933, antisemitic laws like the Nuremberg Race Laws stripped Jews of their rights and citizenship, dismissing them from civil service and liquidating Jewish-owned businesses.⁷⁵

o    Public Identification and Exclusion: Jews were subjected to antisemitic propaganda, boycotts of Jewish-owned businesses, public humiliation, and forced to wear identifying markers like the yellow star.⁷⁵

o    Organized Violence: Events like Kristallnacht (November 1938) saw widespread destruction of Jewish property and synagogues, alongside other pogroms and isolated incidents of violence.⁷⁶

o    Physical Displacement and Internment: Jews were forcibly emigrated, resettled, expelled, deported, and confined to overcrowded ghettos (e.g., Warsaw, Lodz) where starvation, disease, and inhumane conditions led to widespread deaths.⁷⁵

·         The "Final Solution" (1941-1945): This marked the deliberate and systematic mass murder of European Jews.

o    Mass Shootings: Mobile killing units (Einsatzgruppen) murdered over 500,000 Soviet Jews and others, primarily by shooting them into mass graves.⁷⁵

o    Killing Centers (Extermination Camps): Specially designed camps like Auschwitz-Birkenau, Belzec, Chelmno, Sobibor, and Treblinka were built in German-occupied Poland for efficient mass murder, primarily using poisonous gas.⁷⁶ Jews from across Europe were transported by rail to these camps, often immediately gassed upon arrival.⁷⁶

·         Scale and Impact: The Holocaust resulted in the murder of approximately six million Jews, making October 7, 2023, the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust.³¹ This unprecedented genocide devastated thousands of Jewish communities across Europe, leaving survivors with profound trauma, loss, and displacement.⁷⁶

·         Responsibility: The Holocaust was a vast undertaking involving Adolf Hitler, other Nazi leaders (Göring, Himmler, Heydrich, Eichmann), numerous German institutions (Nazi Party, SS, Gestapo, military, railway, healthcare systems, businesses), and countless ordinary Germans who participated through enthusiasm, fear, greed, or antisemitism.⁷⁶ Non-German governments and individuals across Europe also collaborated by enacting antisemitic laws, rounding up Jews, and participating in massacres.⁷⁶

6.3. The Cycle of Persecution: From Victim to Perpetrator

History frequently demonstrates that those who were once victims of persecution can, in turn, become perpetrators. This phenomenon is often explained as a "victim-to-perpetrator" cycle or a "cycle of violence."⁸⁰ Psychologically, this can be a consequence of "historical trauma" or multi-generational trauma, which is experienced by a specific cultural, racial, or ethnic group.⁸³ Such trauma can induce profound psychological changes within individuals and groups, potentially leading to an "increased propensity for violent or aggressive behavior" and impacting interpersonal relationships and societal values.⁸³

Historical examples of this cycle are not uncommon. For instance, in Europe, Catholics persecuted Protestants, and Protestants, in turn, persecuted Catholics. Jewish communities under Muslim rule also experienced periods of severe persecution and discrimination, including the destruction of synagogues, outlawing of Jewish practices, and forced conversions. Such prolonged oppression can leave lasting psychological scars, fostering a mindset within a group that prioritizes survival and security, even if it means resorting to extreme measures.

In the case of the Jewish people, the unprecedented genocide of the Holocaust and centuries of persecution have left deep wounds in their collective memory. This extreme trauma and the intense desire for existential survival can cultivate a mentality where self-preservation and security are paramount. Consequently, following the establishment of the State of Israel and in the ongoing conflict, some of Israel's actions towards Palestinians are internationally viewed as "occupation" and "human rights violations."⁶ These actions, while often justified by Israel as necessary for security, are perceived as oppressive by Palestinians and can be seen as a complex manifestation of the "victim-to-perpetrator" cycle. This is a psychological explanation that does not justify any specific actions but rather highlights the profound impact of historical trauma and the multifaceted nature of the conflict.

7. The Global Chessboard: World Leaders, Geopolitical Interests, and Opportunism

United States: Unwavering Support and Strategic Calculation

The United States is Israel's largest military aid provider, with annual assistance packages exceeding $3 billion.⁸⁷ This is driven by a deep commitment to Israel's security and shared democratic values and strategic interests between the two countries.⁸⁷ The US has consistently vetoed UN Security Council resolutions critical of Israel, highlighting its unwavering diplomatic support.⁸⁷ After the 9/11 attacks, US Middle East policy was influenced by a counter-terrorism perspective, which increased intelligence and counter-terrorism cooperation with Israel and some Arab countries.⁸⁷

However, this US policy has raised concerns among Palestinians that the US prioritizes Israel's interests over their rights.⁸⁷ While 81% of Israelis view the US as helpful in establishing peace, 50% believe Donald Trump was too biased towards Israel.⁸⁹ After the October 7, 2023 attacks, the US provided extensive military, diplomatic, and financial assistance to Israel, including over 10,000 tons of weapons and more than $14 billion in military assistance.⁸⁸ These arms transfers have often been kept secret to avoid public scrutiny and congressional oversight.⁹⁰ These actions have raised questions about the US's role in the Middle East and its neutrality in resolving the Israel-Palestine conflict.⁸⁷

European Union: Economic Influence and Divided Diplomacy

The European Union is Israel's largest trading partner, accounting for 32% of Israel's total trade.⁹² This deep economic relationship gives the EU the power to exert economic influence over the conflict.⁹² However, EU member states often show divisions on the Israel-Palestine issue, where Hungary, the Czech Republic, Austria, and Germany firmly support Israel, while Ireland, Spain, and Slovenia show more sympathy for Palestinians.⁹³

Article 2 of the EU-Israel Association Agreement, which links trade relations to respect for human rights and democratic principles, has been allegedly violated due to Israel's actions in Gaza.⁹² Some EU member states have suspended arms exports to Israel, but Germany is still Israel's second largest military supplier after the US.⁹³ This division prevents Europe from taking a unified stance against Israel's actions, which questions Europe's moral high ground in the face of human rights violations.⁹³

Russia and China: Shifting Alliances and Regional Ambitions

Russia and China share the same position on the Palestinian issue and plan to work together to establish a two-state solution for Israel and Palestinians.⁹⁴ China presents itself as a peace-seeking, "neutral" great power, which contrasts with the US's unconditional support for Israel, which Beijing depicts as a destabilizing influence.⁹⁵ China refrained from describing Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack as a "terrorist attack" but called Israel's retaliatory actions "collective punishment" of Palestinian civilians.⁹⁵

China uses this conflict to weaken the US's global standing and win the "discourse power" war by capitalizing on global sympathy for Palestinians.⁹⁵ Russia also views this conflict as an opportunity to increase its influence in the Middle East and challenge US influence.⁹⁴

Iran and Turkey: Regional Power Play and Proxy Support

Iran is a significant regional actor in the Israel-Palestine conflict, supporting various Palestinian and regional armed groups like Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), Lebanon's Hezbollah, and Yemen's Houthis with funds, weapons, and training.²³ Iran views these groups as part of its "axis of resistance" against Israel.²³ After Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack, Iran publicly praised Hamas and reaffirmed its support.²³

Turkey, although a long-time Israeli ally, has become increasingly critical of Israel's actions towards Palestinians under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.⁹⁸ Turkey describes Hamas as "freedom fighters" and refused to condemn the October 7, 2023 attack.⁹⁸ Turkey's policy is based on its broader strategic interests and its desire to establish itself as a major actor in the Arab world.⁹⁸

Arab States: Normalization, Mediation, and Internal Pressure

The "Abraham Accords," signed in 2020, normalized relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco, marking a significant step towards de-escalation in the Middle East.¹⁰⁰ These agreements were driven by a shared view of Iran as a strategic threat and offered participating countries access to advanced technology and new trade opportunities.¹⁰⁰ The US used these accords to ensure regional security and bypass the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.¹⁰⁰

However, the political cost of normalization increased after the Gaza war, as Arab public opinion is strongly sympathetic to the Palestinian cause.¹⁰⁰ This conflict has halted normalization efforts with Saudi Arabia and increased military tensions with Iran.⁸⁹ Egypt and Qatar have acted as key mediators in the Israel-Hamas war.⁸⁹

Table: Major International Actors: Declared Policy vs. Perceived Opportunistic Interests

International Actor	Declared Policy	Perceived Opportunistic Interests
United States	Two-state solution, Israel's security, humanitarian aid.91	Maintaining strategic influence in the Middle East, arms industry profits.87
European Union	Two-state solution, respect for international law & human rights.92	Maintaining economic ties with Israel, internal political divisions.92
Russia	Two-state solution, support for Palestinian rights.94	Reducing US influence in the Middle East, increasing regional power.94
China	Two-state solution, civilian protection, humanitarian concerns.94	Containing the US, gaining support from Global South countries.95
Iran	Destruction of Israel, support for Palestinian rights.12	Regional influence expansion, challenging Israel through proxy networks.23
Turkey	Two-state solution, independent Palestinian state, East Jerusalem as capital.99	Establishing itself as a major actor in the Arab world, increasing regional influence.98
Arab States	Palestinian rights, two-state solution.93	Security concerns (Iran), economic gains, regional stability.100

The role of world leaders is often characterized by an attempt to balance their declared policies with geopolitical interests. For example, the US's unwavering support for Israel is linked to its strategic interests and counter-terrorism goals in the Middle East.⁸⁷ However, this support raises questions about US neutrality among Palestinians. Similarly, despite the European Union's commitment to human rights, its economic ties and divisions among member states hinder a unified and effective response to Israel's actions.⁹² Russia and China, while supporting Palestinian rights, seek to challenge US influence and strengthen their regional positions.⁹⁴ The actions of these actors influence the conflict's trajectory and often prioritize their own interests over peace efforts, contributing to the conflict's protracted nature.

7.4. Muslim World Leaders: Solidarity and Division

Muslim world leaders have played a complex and often divided role in the Israel-Palestine conflict. As a major intergovernmental organization representing Muslim countries, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) has consistently advocated for Palestinian rights and condemned Israeli occupation and settlements.¹⁰² The OIC's objectives include upholding Muslim rights, promoting Islamic unity, and defending Palestine and its holy sites, especially Al-Quds (Jerusalem).¹⁰²

However, the OIC's influence has been limited by internal divisions, differing national interests among member states, and geopolitical complexities.¹⁰² Its responses have largely been limited to issuing statements of condemnation and organizing emergency meetings.¹⁰² While the OIC has called for international intervention, including from the United Nations, it has not been able to organize meaningful diplomatic initiatives or sanctions to influence Israeli policy.¹⁰² This ineffectiveness has weakened Palestinian leadership's diplomatic efforts, especially due to the trend of normalization with Israel.¹⁰² The OIC needs a cohesive policy on core issues like Jerusalem's status, the right of return for Palestinian refugees, and a two-state solution, and must facilitate reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah.¹⁰²

The "Abraham Accords," signed in 2020, normalized relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco, marking a significant step towards de-escalation in the Middle East.⁴ These agreements were driven by a shared view of Iran as a strategic threat and offered participating countries access to advanced technology and new trade opportunities.¹⁰⁰ The US used these accords to ensure regional security and bypass the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.¹⁰⁰ However, the political cost of normalization increased after the Gaza war, as Arab public opinion is strongly sympathetic to the Palestinian cause.¹⁰⁰ Saudi Arabia, which had hinted at normalization before October 2023, suspended the process after the Hamas attacks and demanded a credible path to a Palestinian state.¹⁰⁰

Turkey, despite being a long-time Israeli ally, has become increasingly critical of Israel's actions towards Palestinians under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.⁹⁸ Erdoğan did not condemn the October 7, 2023 attacks and described Hamas as "freedom fighters".⁹⁸ Turkey aims to establish itself as a major player in the Arab world.⁹⁸ It has hosted Hamas commanders and overlooked their activities (e.g., money laundering and importing goods from Iran).⁹⁸ Turkey is also one of the top providers of humanitarian aid to Gaza.⁹⁹

Egypt and Qatar have acted as key mediators in the Israel-Hamas war.⁸⁹ Egypt was the first Arab country to formally recognize Israel after the 1979 Camp David Accords.¹⁰³ Qatar hosts Hamas's political office and provides financial resources to the group, reportedly with the knowledge and cooperation of the Israeli government.²³ Qatar is a significant donor to Palestinian territories and has mediated between Hamas and Fatah.¹⁰³

Iran is a significant regional actor in the Israel-Palestine conflict, supporting various Palestinian and regional armed groups like Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), Lebanon's Hezbollah, and Yemen's Houthis with funds, weapons, and training.²³ Iran views these groups as part of its "axis of resistance" against Israel.²³ After Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack, Iran publicly praised Hamas and reaffirmed its support.²³

8. Internal Political Dynamics: Controversial Roles

8.1. Controversial Role of Israeli Left-Wing Politicians

In Israeli politics, the term "left" or "Zionist left" primarily relates to attitudes towards the Arab-Israeli conflict, especially regarding Palestine.¹⁰⁵ The left-wing stance involves a willingness to compromise on territories occupied since the Six-Day War and a commitment to secular democratic values.¹⁰⁵

However, the role of Israeli left-wing politicians is not without controversy. Some critics argue that center-right and left-wing Zionist parties have historically supported policies of Palestinian displacement and adopted more hostile attitudes towards the Palestinian people after the October 7, 2023 attacks.¹⁰⁶ For example, Donald Trump's peace proposal, which included the forced expulsion of Gaza residents, was rejected by Israeli left-wing politicians not on moral grounds, but due to concerns about its feasibility.¹⁰⁶ These parties have initiated many displacement projects in the past.¹⁰⁶ Critics viewed the "centrist" parties' response to Trump's plan as a "political and moral failure".¹⁰⁶

Yitzhak Rabin, who played a crucial role in the Oslo Accords and received the Nobel Peace Prize ⁵, also had controversial policies. The Oslo Accords called for handing over parts of the West Bank and Gaza to Palestinians.²⁰ However, this idea of "land handover" was deeply offensive to many religious Jews who considered the West Bank their birthright.²⁰ Jewish settlement expansion continued under Rabin's government and during peace negotiations, and plans for a separation wall on occupied Palestinian land were advanced.¹⁰⁸

Ehud Barak, as Prime Minister of Israel during the 2000 Camp David Summit, was prepared to accept Palestinian sovereignty over 91% of the West Bank and parts of Jerusalem, with land swaps.¹⁹ However, this proposal was criticized due to Israel's claim of sovereignty over the Temple Mount, unfavorable land swap ratios, and proposed Israeli control over Palestinian airspace, borders, and natural resources, which Palestinians viewed as an attempt to maintain indefinite occupation.¹⁹ The failure of these negotiations is believed to have pushed Israeli politics towards the right and triggered the Second Intifada.¹⁰⁹

Ehud Olmert, who served as Prime Minister from 2006 to 2009, was a vocal supporter of Israel's unilateral disengagement from Gaza, although he initially opposed land withdrawal.⁴⁵ His tenure saw the 2006 Lebanon War and the 2008-2009 Gaza War.⁴⁵ He has been a harsh critic of Israel's military operations, stating that Israel is acting "very close to a war crime".¹

The term "Progressive Except Palestine" (PEP) refers to individuals or organizations who identify as progressive or left-wing but do not express pro-Palestinian sentiment or avoid commenting on the Israel-Palestine conflict.¹¹¹ Pro-Palestinian advocates view this as political hypocrisy, while critics see it as anti-Israel and a smear against the pro-Israel left.¹¹¹ This phenomenon has existed for decades.¹¹¹

9. Alternative Narratives: Religious vs. Nationalist Perspectives

9.1. What if Palestinians had approached the conflict nationally instead of religiously?

The Israel-Palestine conflict is deeply rooted in historical, religious, and nationalistic claims.¹ A significant aspect of this conflict is the intertwining of religious and nationalistic identities among Palestinians. Organizations like Hamas have merged Palestinian nationalism with Islamic fundamentalism.¹² Their 1988 charter pledged to destroy Israel and establish an Islamic state in all of historical Palestine (comprising present-day Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza), and included antisemitic rhetoric.¹³ Hamas views the "holy war" (jihad) to reclaim Palestine as a religious duty for Palestinian Muslims.¹³ Similarly, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) aims to destroy Israel and establish an Islamist Palestinian state, believing their goals can only be achieved through military means.³⁵

If Palestinians had approached this conflict purely from a nationalist perspective, excluding religious elements, the trajectory of the conflict might have been different.

·         Change in Negotiation Nature: If the Palestinian struggle had focused solely on national self-determination and the establishment of an independent state, religiously mandated "maximalist" demands (such as the destruction of Israel or the establishment of an Islamic state over all of Palestine) might have been absent from the negotiating table. This could have allowed a secular, nationalist-driven negotiation to focus more on pragmatic issues like land, borders, refugee issues, and state sovereignty. It might have made it easier for Israel to negotiate with a secular Palestinian authority that recognized Israel's existence.

·         Potential for Palestinian Unity: The existing division between Hamas and Fatah is partly due to their differing ideologies, where Hamas holds an Islamist viewpoint and Fatah is comparatively secular nationalist.¹⁶ If religious elements were less prominent, the potential for a unified nationalist movement among Palestinians might have increased, creating a stronger and more cohesive party for negotiations with Israel.

·         International Support: A secular nationalist movement might have garnered broader international support, as the international community often hesitates to support religious extremism. This could have created more diplomatic pressure and opportunities for the application of international law for Palestinians.

·         Nature of Violence: If the primary driving force of the conflict were nationalist rather than religious, the nature of the violence might have changed. While nationalist movements can also be violent, the concept of religious jihad often justifies extremism and attacks on civilian targets.¹⁴ A nationalist movement probably would have focused more on military targets and adhered to different ethical standards regarding civilian casualties.

·         Historical Context: Palestinian nationalism developed from the 1920s during the British Mandate, intensifying with the Arab Revolt (1936-39) against British rule and Zionist settlement.² This revolt was a formative event for Palestinian nationalism.⁴ Secular organizations like the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) also do not recognize Israel and advocate for the complete "liberation" of "historical Palestine," often through terror.¹⁴ This means that even if Palestinians had approached the conflict nationally rather than religiously, a fundamental opposition to Israel's existence and the potential for armed resistance might still have persisted.

However, such a shift would not have completely eliminated the core causes of the conflict. The "Nakba" (1948 displacement) and the loss of land, displacement, and denial of self-determination rights resulting from Israeli occupation would still have generated deep resentment from a nationalist perspective.⁵ Issues like the "Right of Return" (Right of Return), a fundamental part of Palestinian identity, would have remained a central point of negotiation under both religious and nationalist narratives.⁵

In summary, if Palestinians had approached the conflict purely from a nationalist perspective, it could have created a different and potentially more constructive environment for peace negotiations, reducing the influence of religious extremism. However, it would not have fully resolved the deep historical and territorial root causes of the conflict, and a lasting solution would still depend on addressing fundamental claims from both sides.

10. The Conflict Economy: Who Benefits from Perpetual Instability?

Global Arms Industry and Military-Technology Sector

The Israel-Palestine conflict is a lucrative arena for the global arms industry and military-technology sector. The United States is Israel's largest military aid provider, providing over $3.8 billion in military assistance annually.⁸⁷ After the October 7, 2023 attacks, the US supplied Israel with over 10,000 tons of weapons and 50,000 artillery shells, among other military equipment.⁹⁰ These weapons are often purchased through the Foreign Military Sales program, funded by US taxpayers, which acts as corporate welfare for major arms manufacturers like Lockheed Martin, RTX, Boeing, and General Dynamics, whose stock prices have soared.⁹⁰

Israel's own military-technology industry also profits from this conflict. Israel has been described as a "Palestine Laboratory," where weapons and surveillance systems are tested on Palestinians and then sold globally.¹¹⁶ This conflict has further strengthened Israel's military-technology industry, deepening its role as a global arms innovator.¹¹⁶

Gaza and West Bank Reconstruction Industry

The reconstruction of the Gaza Strip is estimated to require over $50 billion.¹¹⁷ This massive reconstruction effort presents a significant opportunity for the construction industry. However, this industry also falls under Israeli control. Israeli authorities are the sole arbiters of which construction materials can enter the Gaza Strip, allowing Israeli companies, such as Nesher Cement, to profit significantly from the destruction.¹¹⁸ Nesher holds a monopoly over the Israeli and Palestinian cement markets and has reaped immense profits from Gaza's reconstruction.¹¹⁸ This further entrenches the Palestinian economy within Israeli control.¹¹⁸

Extremist Groups: Exploiting Chaos for Recruitment and Influence

The Israel-Hamas war has created a unique environment for extremist groups to advance their ideological agendas and recruitment efforts.¹¹⁹ Jihadist groups like Al-Qaeda and Islamic State (ISIS) have praised the October 7 attacks and called on their followers to emulate Hamas's example and launch attacks.¹¹⁹ They exploit genuine concerns about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza to radicalize individuals and spread their propaganda and narratives.¹¹⁹ This conflict has also led to increased antisemitism and Islamophobia in Western countries, exacerbating societal polarization.¹¹⁹

Political Gain: Domestic and International Influence

The conflict brings political advantages to leaders on both the Israeli and Palestinian sides. In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who faces corruption charges, is accused of using the conflict to maintain power and delay elections.¹²¹ His public support has temporarily increased after military successes.¹²¹ Among Palestinians, the weakness of the Palestinian Authority (PA) and its failure to deliver a Palestinian state have allowed Hamas, with its message of armed resistance, to gain support.¹²² The conflict also maintains the division between the West Bank and Gaza, which some in Israel view as advantageous.¹²²

Israeli Settlement Movement: Ideological and Economic Drivers

The Israeli settlement movement directly benefits from the conflict. This movement is driven by religious ideology and the perceived religious imperative for Jews to settle the entire Land of Israel.¹²³ Settlements help Israel solidify control, hinder the possibility of a Palestinian state, and ensure Israel's presence throughout the West Bank.¹²³ Settlers, often with the support and protection of the Israeli army, vandalize Palestinian homes, establish outposts, attack farmers, destroy crops, and steal livestock.¹²⁴ Despite being illegal under international law, these settlements continue to expand, serving as a persistent driver of the conflict.⁵¹

Humanitarian Aid Sector: Challenges and Criticism

The humanitarian aid sector, while essential for assisting conflict victims, is not immune to criticism. UN and other aid agencies often face accusations of funding shortages, bureaucratic complexities, and lack of accountability.¹²⁵ Some critics argue that prolonged aid programs foster dependency and corruption, hindering countries' ability to develop independently.¹²⁵ Concerns also exist regarding Israeli authorities' restrictions on humanitarian aid delivery in Gaza and the opaque structure of new private aid organizations.³⁰ Israel has introduced a new aid system, purportedly to prevent Hamas from siphoning aid, but UN and other agencies consider it insufficient and a violation of humanitarian principles.³⁰

11. Humanitarian Cost: Casualties, Displacement, and Humanitarian Catastrophe

Israeli Casualties and Damages: Impact of Attacks and Wars

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has also resulted in significant Israeli casualties and damages. In the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, approximately 6,373 Israelis were killed.¹¹⁰ The First Intifada resulted in 179-200 Israeli deaths ¹¹⁰, and the Second Intifada saw 1,010 Israelis killed.¹¹⁰ In the Gaza wars of 2008-2009, 2012, 2014, and 2021, approximately 300 Israelis were killed.³³

The October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks killed approximately 1,200 Israelis, mostly civilians, and took 251 hostages.⁸ This attack was the deadliest in Israel's 75-year history and caused deep psychological trauma to its people.²³ In response, Israel launched military operations in Gaza, which are still ongoing.⁸

Palestinian Casualties and Damages: Scale of Loss and Destruction

The impact of the conflict on Palestinians has been devastating. In the 1948 war, over 700,000 Palestinians were displaced, an event known as the "Nakba".¹¹⁰ The First Intifada resulted in 1,962 Palestinian deaths ¹¹⁰, and the Second Intifada saw 3,179-3,354 Palestinians killed.¹¹⁰ Between 2008 and September 2023, approximately 6,400 Palestinians were killed in Israeli attacks.³³

The Gaza war, which began in October 2023, has led to an alarming number of Palestinian casualties. According to the Gaza Health Ministry, over 55,000 Palestinians have been killed as of June 2025, more than half of whom are women and children.³⁰ In the West Bank, over 952 Palestinians have been killed.³³ A study in The Lancet estimated 64,260 deaths from traumatic injury by June 2024, noting that "indirect" deaths are likely much higher.⁵⁴

Table: Israeli and Palestinian Casualties (1948-Present) by Conflict/Period

Conflict/Period	Israeli Killed (Approx.)	Palestinian Killed (Approx.)	Other Information
1948 Arab-Israeli War	6,373 110	13,000-16,000 110	700,000+ Palestinians displaced.110
First Intifada (1987-1993)	179-200 110	1,962 110	-
Second Intifada (2000-2005)	1,010 110	3,179-3,354 110	-
2008-2021 Gaza Wars	~300 33	~6,400 33	-
October 7, 2023 Attack	~1,200 8	-	251 hostages taken.30
October 2023-Present Gaza War	~1,700 (including Oct 7 attack) 32	~55,000+ (Gaza Health Ministry) 30	Widespread destruction & humanitarian crisis in Gaza.30

Ongoing Humanitarian Crisis: Food, Water, Health, and Displacement

The humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip has become catastrophic. Approximately 1.9 million people have been internally displaced, representing 90% of the total population.⁵⁵ Most of them are living in overcrowded shelters, makeshift accommodations, or damaged buildings.⁵⁵ Over 82.4% of the Gaza Strip is now within the Israeli-militarized zone or under displacement orders.⁵⁵

·         Food Crisis: More than half of Gaza's population is on the brink of famine, and the entire population is experiencing acute food insecurity and malnutrition.⁵⁶ Israel's blockade prevents 83% of food aid from entering.³⁴

·         Water and Sanitation: Water and sanitation systems have largely collapsed, with people having access to less than 5 liters of water per day, which is less than one-third of the WHO's minimum standard.³⁴ The lack of drinking water and destruction of sewage systems have created a public health disaster.³⁴

·         Healthcare: Nearly 84% of Gaza's health facilities have been damaged or destroyed, leading to a collapse of the healthcare system.³⁴ Healthcare for pregnant women and children is inadequate, and the miscarriage rate has increased by 300%.³⁴

·         Education: Over 87% of schools and all universities in Gaza have been damaged or destroyed, leaving over 658,000 children without schooling for 20 months.³⁴

Table: Infrastructure Damage and Displacement in Gaza (Post-October 2023)

Sector	Extent of Damage	Humanitarian Impact
Housing	72% damaged, 292,000+ homes destroyed/damaged 56	Over 1 million people homeless.56
Public Service Infrastructure	19% damaged (water, health, education) 56	Collapse of healthcare system, severe water shortage, dysfunctional education system.34
Commercial/Industrial Buildings	9% damaged 56	Economy contracted by 83%.117
Agriculture	80% cultivated land damaged, 83% agricultural wells inoperative 55	Food supply crisis, increased malnutrition.55
Roads	92% primary roads destroyed/damaged 56	Hindered humanitarian aid distribution.56
Communications	Infrastructure severely damaged 56	Internet and mobile services disrupted.55
Displacement	Approximately 1.9 million people (90% of population) internally displaced 55	Overcrowded shelters, inability to meet humanitarian needs.55
Debris	26 million tons of rubble 56	Will take many years to remove, environmental pollution.56

The UN Human Rights Office considers Israel's warfare methods in Gaza consistent with genocide, as they intentionally deprive Palestinians of necessities for survival (food, water, fuel).⁶² This amounts to the war crime of using starvation of civilians as a weapon of war.⁶⁴

12. The Future of the Conflict: Potential Paths and Challenges

The future of the Israel-Palestine conflict is highly uncertain and faces several potential paths and challenges. The protracted nature of the conflict and its multifaceted character pose significant obstacles to an easy resolution.

·         Two-State Solution: A large part of the international community, especially the United States, views the two-state solution as the only viable path to resolve the conflict.⁹¹ This solution aims to establish an independent and sovereign Palestinian state alongside Israel, based on the 1967 borders.³ UN Security Council Resolution 242 gave rise to the concept of "land for peace".⁸ However, Israeli settlement expansion has fragmented Palestinian territory and severely hindered the possibility of a viable Palestinian state.⁵³ Some analysts believe that due to settlement expansion, the two-state solution is no longer realistic.¹

·         One-State Reality: Israeli settlement policies are criticized for entrenching an "unequal rights one-state reality" in the West Bank.⁵³ In this scenario, Palestinians might remain as second-class citizens under Israeli rule, leading to human rights violations and injustice.

·         Continuation of Occupation: The International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled in 2024 that Israel's presence in occupied Palestinian territory is unlawful and that Israel must end the occupation, cease settlement activities, and make reparations.³ However, Israel has rejected this ruling and continues settlement expansion.⁵¹ The continuation of occupation will fuel frustration and resistance among Palestinians, perpetuating the cycle of violence.

·         Spread of Extremism: The Gaza war has created a conducive environment for extremist groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS to advance their ideological agendas and recruitment efforts.¹¹⁹ They exploit genuine concerns about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza to radicalize individuals and spread their propaganda.¹¹⁹ This conflict has also led to increased antisemitism and Islamophobia in Western countries, exacerbating societal polarization.¹¹⁹

·         Humanitarian Crisis: The severe humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip (widespread displacement, food insecurity, collapse of the healthcare system, and infrastructure destruction) will remain a major challenge in the foreseeable future.⁴ International aid and Israel's easing of the blockade are essential to alleviate this crisis.

·         Increased Regional Tensions: The Israel-Palestine conflict has widespread regional implications. Iran and its proxy groups (e.g., Hezbollah, Houthis) act as its "axis of resistance" against Israel.²³ This conflict increases the risk of a broader regional war in the Middle East, which could affect global energy markets and geopolitical stability.²³

·         International Accountability: The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on war crimes charges.³⁴ Human rights organizations have accused Israel of war crimes and genocide and called for an end to arms sales.³⁴ Ensuring international law enforcement and accountability is crucial for lasting peace.

·         Political Stalemate: The political process for resolving the conflict has repeatedly failed, which has created a deep mistrust between both sides.⁷ There is also a tendency among leaders on both the Israeli and Palestinian sides to use the conflict for political gain.¹²¹

A just and lasting solution requires all parties to commit to international law and human rights. Israel must withdraw from occupied territories and cease settlement activities, which are clear violations of international law. The right to self-determination and the establishment of an independent, sovereign Palestinian state must be recognized. Terrorist organizations like Hamas must abandon their violence and focus on unity and effective, democratic governance for Palestinians. World leaders should abandon their self-serving policies and genuinely mediate the resolution of the conflict's root causes, avoiding double standards in applying international law. Ensuring accountability and prosecuting those responsible for human rights violations is essential for lasting peace. Ending this conflict requires not just military force or political strategy, but a deep commitment to humanity, justice, and long-term coexistence.

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